It's been one heck of a election season so far. And after the northeast primaries, I think its safe to say that we are probably heading for a Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump general election showdown. I'm going to try my best to predict what it might look like on election night and what candidate would pickup what particular state.
Disclaimer: Anything can happen from now to November so take this with a grain of salt.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both household names. I don't think there are many voters out there that haven't heard or aren't somewhat familiar with both. Hillary served in the Senate and as the Secretary of State, while Donald Trump has become a well known celebrity because of his business antics and the popular show "Apprentice".
We can safely assume that people have already know both of these candidates well and after this eventful primary cycle, most of us have already taken a good look at what kind of a commander in chief they would be.
I'm gonna list three of the biggest dynamics that will determine this election first and will post a link to show which state would go which way. Feel free to agree or disagree!
1. The American electorate has slowly been inching towards a leftward direction. Many young people are turning 18 and many immigrants are getting citizenships. According to Pew Research, majority of both of these demographic groups tend to vote Democrat than Republican. On the other hand, the population of people who vote Republican is slowly shrinking. According to the same research center, conservatives tend to be more older and more white. That share of the vote is projected to be lower than it did in 2012. The facts are clear as day, demographic trends today are in favor of Democratic candidates than Republican candidates.
2. Policy wise, the two candidates couldn't be more apart. Donald Trump wants to deport 11 million people and their children while Clinton wants immigration reform so that those same 11 million get a path to citizenship. Trump wants to ban non American muslim while Clinton wants to take in refugees from war torn middle east countries. But surprisingly, there are actually a few things that both agree with. Both are against the Trans Pacific Partnership and both think everyone should be covered when it comes to healthcare. Clinton wants to expand Obamacare while Trump is vowing to make sure no one dies on the street because they can't access care.
3. Favorability: Both candidates suffer from really high negative numbers when it comes to likability. According to HuffPost Pollster, Clinton has a 55% unfavorable rating while Trump has a 64% unfavorable. Republicans hate Hillary Clinton because of her time as Secretary of State and her E-mail problems, and Democrats and progressives can't stand Donald Trump and his divisive rhetoric.
Hispanic voters were a big part in giving Barack Obama a second term in 2012, and while i think they will play a big part in this election, I think the bigger role this cycle will be women.
Women voters are projected to be 53% of the electorate in 2016. Donald Trump has a 74% unfavorable rating with women voters according to the latest CNN/ORC poll. I think those are gonna be devastating numbers for him and i think it will be hard for Trump to recover. On the other hand, Hillary is a qualified women herself which will be advantageous when it comes gaining those voters.
So HERE is my best prediction. The two biggest differences compared to 2012 will be North Carolina and Arizona. I think the demographics are slowly changing in those two states and coupled with Trump's unfavorables with women, I think they will go blue.
Clinton: 358 Electoral Votes
Trump: 180 Electoral Votes
Again, this is just my educated guess as i encourage anyone reading to take it with a grain of salt. Feel free to agree or disagree.
No comments:
Post a Comment