PREDICTIONS FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION (OP-ED)

It's been one heck of a election season so far. And after the northeast primaries, I think its safe to say that we are probably heading for a Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump general election showdown. I'm going to try my best to predict what it might look like on election night and what candidate would pickup what particular state. 

Disclaimer: Anything can happen from now to November so take this with a grain of salt. 

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both household names. I don't think there are many voters out there that haven't heard or aren't somewhat familiar with both. Hillary served in the Senate and as the Secretary of State, while Donald Trump has become a well known celebrity because of his business antics and the popular show "Apprentice". 

We can safely assume that people have already know both of these candidates well and after this eventful primary cycle, most of us have already taken a good look at what kind of a commander in chief they would be. 

I'm gonna list three of the biggest dynamics that will determine this election first and will post a link to show which state would go which way. Feel free to agree or disagree!

1. The American electorate has slowly been inching towards a leftward direction. Many young people are turning 18 and many immigrants are getting citizenships. According to Pew Research, majority of both of these demographic groups tend to vote Democrat than Republican. On the other hand, the population of people who vote Republican is slowly shrinking. According to the same research center, conservatives tend to be more older and more white. That share of the vote is projected to be lower than it did in 2012. The facts are clear as day, demographic trends today are in favor of Democratic candidates than Republican candidates. 

2. Policy wise, the two candidates couldn't be more apart. Donald Trump wants to deport 11 million people and their children while Clinton wants immigration reform so that those same 11 million get a path to citizenship. Trump wants to ban non American muslim while Clinton wants to take in refugees from war torn middle east countries. But surprisingly, there are actually a few things that both agree with. Both are against the Trans Pacific Partnership and both think everyone should be covered when it comes to healthcare. Clinton wants to expand Obamacare while Trump is vowing to make sure no one dies on the street because they can't access care. 

3. Favorability: Both candidates suffer from really high negative numbers when it comes to likability. According to HuffPost Pollster, Clinton has a 55% unfavorable rating while Trump has a 64% unfavorable. Republicans hate Hillary Clinton because of her time as Secretary of State and her E-mail problems, and Democrats and progressives can't stand Donald Trump and his divisive rhetoric. 

Hispanic voters were a big part in giving Barack Obama a second term in 2012, and while i think they will play a big part in this election, I think the bigger role this cycle will be women. 

Women voters are projected to be 53% of the electorate in 2016. Donald Trump has a 74% unfavorable rating with women voters according to the latest CNN/ORC poll. I think those are gonna be devastating numbers for him and i think it will be hard for Trump to recover. On the other hand, Hillary is a qualified women herself which will be advantageous when it comes gaining those voters.

So HERE is my best prediction. The two biggest differences compared to 2012 will be North Carolina and Arizona. I think the demographics are slowly changing in those two states and coupled with Trump's unfavorables with women, I think they will go blue. 

Clinton: 358 Electoral Votes

Trump:  180 Electoral Votes 

Again, this is just my educated guess as i encourage anyone reading to take it with a grain of salt. Feel free to agree or disagree. 

WHY THE GOVERNMENT HASEN'T CHANGED

My colleague writes a good post about treating the government as your big brother. Your big brother always knows the best for you and you should always be satisfied.

I agree with much of his post. We should be happy with the system our founders laid out. We are a representative democracy after all, and we vote for representatives, senators, delegates and for electoral votes.

However,  there are some points i want to add here that deal with our modern political system. We live in the era of special interests where corporations, big donors and other influences control a lot of what happens in Washington. Congress has a historically low approval rating by the general public and people have little trust in the government. Both Republican and Democratic voters are choosing outsider candidates who won't be influenced by special interests.

Our founders did lay out a near perfect system, but they also didn't know the reality of today's politics where voters are having less and less influence in the process. For example, the Republican establishment is quietly trying to stop Donald Trump (who has the most votes in the primary process and who will likely secure the most delegates before the convention) from getting the party's nomination. Even though i personally disagree with almost everything about Donald Trump's views, i think robbing the majority of voters and stealing the nomination from him would be an utter disaster.

In conclusion, the reason big brother doesn't want to hang out with us is because of money in politics and laws like Citizens United. Both Republican and Democratic politicians have more incentive to be loyal to their donors than their voters. I personally think we should amend the constitution to make sure big money doesn't influence politics the way it does now, so that congress has more of an incentive to listen to "We the people".

LOSE-LOSE SITUATION

After an overwhelming electoral landslide loss in the 2012 general election, the Republican party went through an "autopsy". Dubbed the "growth and opportunity project" it listed several points on how the party should work on expanding its reach. They aimed to work on becoming a more favorable party for hispanic voters, LGBT community, African Americans, single women, millennials and several other demographics that voted for the democrats that November. But that was 2012 and this is 2016.

Meet Donald Trump

The brash billionaire businessman from New York came out of nowhere last July and lit that GOP autopsy on fire. From his comments about comparing undocumented immigrants to rapists to banning non american Muslims from entering the United States, he has not only alienated Democrats, but also people in his own party. Various online polls show just how unpopular he would be facing Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in the general election.

The Republican party, recognizing this fact is quietly determined to deny him the nomination at the party's convention in July. Even if Donald Trump walks in the convention with the most delegates and votes. Ideally, they'd like to see someone who's more favorable among the establishment and the general election voters to face Hillary or Bernie this fall.

I believe this would be a massive mistake. Denying the voice of a large chunk of the voting base would alienate those voters that turned out in the primary to vote for Donald Trump. Those same voters are so angry at the Republican establishment that they would most likely abandon the GOP and give up on the political process. Whoever the Republican nominee is, they would desperately need the Trump voters to back the candidate if they wants a realistic shot at winning back the White House.

On the other hand, a Trump nominee would be a disaster itself. He would be the most unpopular candidate to become the GOP nominee since Gerald Ford in 1976. Here is just a look at how various demographic groups view him

Among swing voters

64% unfavorable among Independent voters
68% unfavorable among white women
74% unfavorable among white college graduates

Among Democratic leaning groups

75% unfavorable among moderates
80% unfavorable among 18-34 aged voters
80% unfavorable among African Americans
85% unfavorable among Hispanic Americans

Among Republican leaning groups

52% unfavorable among non college educated whites
53% unfavorable among conservatives
56% unfavorable among white evangelical protestants
51% unfavorable among white Americans.

Source

It seems like whatever path you choose, the Republican party would have a tough time to unite all its voters. After the convention ends, there would only be three months left till the general election. Whoever comes out of that convention in July the GOP is going to have an incredibly difficult task to come up with a nominee that unites everybody to beat Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. It's a lose-lose situation.